Something interesting happened this week. The US Census Bureau released their latest municipal population estimates and it provided some very interesting trends and some very misleading data. New York City and Los Angeles both increased in population and remain or nation's largest cities. Recent immigration is fueling most of the growth in those urban areas as they continue to swell with minority populations.
What made the release most interesting though is how the media reacted to the fastest growing list. According to the Christian Science Monitor "Texas hosts four of the top 10 cities, including Round Rock – which was No. 2 – Killeen (9), Fort Worth (10), and McKinney (5).The others include Raleigh (8) and Cary (3) in North Carolina; Roseville (6) and Irvine (7) in California; and Gilbert (4), in Arizona." Christian Science Monitor 7/1/09
Most of the media swooned over these growing cities with their "good public schools, partnerships between businesses and universities, entrepreneurship, low crime rates, and cultural outlets" but little was said of how this growth actually occurred. In fact, the real truth is that many of these cities are not really cities at all, but are in fact suburban communities that share two key characteristics. They are located in job-rich metropolitan regions (Austin, Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill-Cary, Dallas-Ft. Worth, and Phoenix) and are located in states that have progressive annexation laws that permit established municipalities to absorb their suburban fringes. Don't be fooled into thinking that these areas are recession-proof. The growth that the Census Bureau announced for the year over year was based largely upon growth in these suburban areas that had been accumulating for five to ten years. in North Carolina, suburbs must meet certain density thresholds before they may be annexed by the municipality. That means that the suburban growth that was ground to a halt when the bubble burst in 2008 will likely slow growth in these areas over the next five period.
This is not to take anything away from my own capitol city, Raleigh, North Carolina. Their downtown is slowly transitioning from a sleepy center dominated by low-rise, sprawling government office buildings to a mixed-use center with dare I say, a night life. And Cary, long a community of pristine suburban office parks and golf course neighborhoods is embracing an urban future with increasing density and a burgeoning downtown area.
The term "city" broadly refers to all of those incorporated jurisdictions that provide urban services to its residents. Some have commerce and culture, while others are simply a bedroom. The new economy is already determining the next winners and losers. Winners will be communities that are mixed-use and flexible, able to attract jobs and people, and have a coherent vision of long-term sustainability. The losers will be the ones wound so tight with restrictive covenants, age-restrictions, and long-term lease stipulations that they will be unable to retrofit for the future. Cities large and small will be doubly challenged with being efficient providers of urban services as well as centers for civic culture. Will the suburbs be able to meet this challenge or will they wither on the vine?
Happy Labor Day
11 years ago
This will continue to be worth watching as local politics impacts census and economic development. New metropolitan and micropolitan statistical area definitions were announced by the United States Office of Management and Budget based on application of the 2000 standards with Census 2000 data. Metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas are collectively referred to as Core Based Statistical Areas. Metropolitan statistical areas have at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or more population, plus adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core as measured by commuting ties. Micropolitan statistical areas are a new set of statistical areas that have at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000 but less than 50,000 population, plus adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core as measured by commuting ties. Thus, your assessment of the changing patterns from annexation will continue to impact demographic models used for analysis.
ReplyDeleteYes, annexation and local politics will continue to impact demographics and markets. New metropolitan and micropolitan statistical area definitions were announced by the United States Office of Management and Budget based on application of the 2000 standards with Census 2000 data. Metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas are collectively referred to as Core Based Statistical Areas. Metropolitan statistical areas have at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or more population, plus adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core as measured by commuting ties. Micropolitan statistical areas are a new set of statistical areas that have at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000 but less than 50,000 population, plus adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core as measured by commuting ties.
ReplyDelete