Interestingly, this article was reported by Technology Review, under the title Forget Curbing Suburban Sprawl.
They report that "urban planners hoping to help mitigate CO2 emissions by increasing housing density would do better to focus on fuel-efficiency improvements to vehicles, investments in renewable energy, and cap and trade legislation now being voted on in Congress, according to the study, released Tuesday. It concludes that increasing population density in metropolitan areas would yield insignificant CO2 reductions."
They go on to further report that "even if 75 percent of all new and replacement housing in America were built at twice the density of current new developments, and those living in the newly constructed housing drove 25 percent less as a result, CO2 emissions from personal travel would decline nationwide by only 8 to 11 percent by 2050, according to the study. If just 25 percent of housing units were developed at such densities and residents drove only 12 percent less as a result, CO2 emissions would be reduced by less than 2 percent by 2050."
So should we go ahead and throw in the towel? Has all this advocacy for improving our built environment been for naught? Absolutely not. In fact, the evidence to change our built environment and offer more urban solutions has never been more necessary.
The two principal recommendations of the report were that:
- Policies that support more compact, mixed-use development and reinforce its ability to reduce VMT, energy use, and CO2 emissions should be encouraged.
- More carefully designed studies of the effects of land use patterns and the form and location of more compact, mixed-use development on VMT, energy use, and CO2 emissions are needed to implement compact development more effectively.
As if reducing greenhouse gas emissions was the only reason to encourage more compact, mixed-use development. And, in fact, the report notes that there are plenty of other excellent reasons to change our development patterns.
Changes in development patterns entail other benefits and costs that have not been quantified in this study.
On the benefit side, more compact, mixed-use development should reduce some infrastructure costs, increase the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of public transit, and expand housing choices where compact developments are undersupplied. Other benefits include less conversion of agricultural and other environmentally fragile areas and greater opportunities for physical activity by facilitating the use of non-motorized modes of travel, such as walking and bicycling.
And never mind the fact that the changing demographics over the past 40 years are radically changing the face of housing. Lot sizes have been in decline for decades based largely on market preferences. But if compact communities won't yield the biggest gain in GHG reductions should we just allow sprawl to perpetuate? No.
If we have learned anything from this recession it's that suburban development and its necessary dependence on leveraged debt is economically volatile at best. Suburban development patterns have also been shown to increase environmental degradation of our water supplies and our forests. The promise of the big house in the suburbs increases energy needs because of excessively high heated (and cooled) floor are per person and reduces family time due to commuting. Surburbia has shown to underperform in many ways over the last couple of decades and GHGs are only but one indicator of many.
The reason for urbanism is more than just reducing GHGs. It is because good urbanism is more resilient to changes in our future. Good urbanism provides choices in housing, in transportation, and in shopping. Sprawl limits choices. And the proposed solutions highlighted by Technology Review are expensive and untested. Urbanism, on the other hand, has a substantial track record for being adaptable. Choice is good.